The Shape of Things

The postponement today of Glastonbury for the second year running was an unwelcome wake-up call for those of us who have been deluding ourselves that 2021 would be better than 2020. One of the headliners, Paul McCartney, said weeks ago that the festival wouldn’t be happening, not least because it would become a ‘super-spreader’ event. And it would. Given the way the vaccines for COVID-19 are being rolled out, the festival would have gone ahead with a crowd that, by and large, had not been vaccinated. Watching home secretary Priti Patel give a woeful performance at tonight’s Downing Street new briefing, I felt new depths of gloom, rivalling those of last year when the virus ripped through the country.

Patel was asked, repeatedly and reasonably, whether people should book their holidays for the summer. She was slippery, evasive and eventually non-committal. “It’s too early to say,” she added, giving literally no indication of the direction or rather the government’s lack of travel. But Sky’s next expert – she was a scientist and I managed to miss her name – was, by comparison to Patel, a model of clarity. She described herself as “cautious” while speaking with the air of a woman who wanted to say, “No fucking chance.”

By the summer, who really expects the UK to open its borders to the world and the world to open its borders to the UK? Will COVID-19 and its numerous variants be “wrestled to the ground”, as Johnson told us it would be within 12 weeks last March? Hmm. The thing about Johnson is to listen to his actual words and believe the precise opposite. There could be some level of travel but we are surely deluding ourselves if we think it will be normal again.

I’m getting dates for rearranged gigs. Do I think they will actually happen? In truth, no I don’t. Do I think any rock festivals will survive? No, I don’t. Will the major sporting events in the UK take place? Yes, but mostly with few or no fans present. But events like the Olympics, the British Lions tour of South Africa, the Ashes cricket tour?  Yes, with few fans, no chance and yes but with few fans, none of whom will be from England.

We’re a very long way from the end of the major effects of COVID-19 but the virus will probably never go away again. Things may just begin to improve by the summer and they may improve still further in the autumn, but only if we don’t end up with new variants, new strains and – God forbid – new viruses. When Harold MacMillan, the former UK PM, was asked about the things in politics that he most feared, he replied, “Events, dear boy. Events.” A better future is what we hope for, what we wish for and if we are superstitious pray for, but the unknown and the unexpected can always happen.

Of course, there is still the hope that by summer, things could look very different. I am not by nature a betting man, but if I was, I wouldn’t bet on it.