Opening up

It’s increasingly certain that the government will be ending all Covid restrictions from 19th July. ‘Honest Bob’ Jenrick announces that masks will become optional from that date, school bubbles will end (convenient timing for the summer holidays) and we return to our offices safe in the knowledge that we might not die of the virus if we have been double-jabbed. What could possibly go wrong?

I start from the position that I am in favour reopening society if the scientific evidence says it’s the right thing to do. And, if we are being completely honest, the Great British Public is way ahead of the politicians. Last week’s Cockgate scandal involving the former health secretary saw to that. I’m just surprised that it took people so long to rise up against the politicians.

Not everyone is using the NHS app for fear they will get a notification to isolate when they don’t know why. In fact, many are deleting it altogether and if I had a pound for everyone I have seen pretend to use their smart phone when entering a pub or put inaccurate contact details on the sign in sheet, I’d have quite a few pounds.

What we are witnessing is the decision by the government to return to the ‘herd immunity’ strategy it hastily abandoned a year or so ago. Although it has not been reported as such, the clear plan is to allow the virus to run wild across the country now that the vulnerable have been offered a vaccine. In the main, younger people don’t suffer fatal consequences from Covid and although it’s unpleasant, they’ll survive.

Being jabbed will likely stop you dying or going to hospital if you catch the virus. You might get very sick and suffer long Covid, but the government has concluded that this is a price worth paying to restore the economy to something approaching normal.

In addition, through all manner of friendly media outlets and shady libertarian pressure groups, the government wants people to return to their offices and stop working from home. And another message emerging from newly declared medical expert Sajid Javid is that Covid-19 is just like the flu and, paraphrasing ever so slightly, if you feel like shit, you should still go to work because otherwise you won’t get paid.

The science may indeed say that going back to normal in a third wave is the right thing to do and who would I be to argue with experts, as opposed to politicians? But I am sure you can sense my natural unease. It’s all those what ifs.

Everyone returning to work will mean everyone, including those who have been shielding. The vaccine should stop them dying, which must be of enormous comfort to vulnerable people. What I will say is that I have seen, at first hand, how awful Covid can be even if you have been double-jabbed and anyone considered to be vulnerable should be very careful indeed.

When we open up completely, new cases will soar. We are relying on the vaccines to keep us all alive. The vaccines appear to deal effectively with the current strains and variants but don’t forget that the more cases there are, the more chance of variants emerging. If one evades the vaccine, what then?

Boris Johnson should level with us. We want to open up, so what is the science saying? What will the future look like? Will there be testing, tracking and tracing and forced isolation? Should we worry about the rapidly rising number of cases? As of now, Johnson is governing by spin and leak. He needs to break the habit of a lifetime and tell the truth.

My natural pessimism leaves me inclined to feel it won’t be long until things go tits up and Covid goes on the attack again. But the effects on society, on people’s overall health, physical and mental, and, yes, the economy are bordering on catastrophic. It could be that we will need to trade some element of good health and risk serious illness and even death in order to open up, in which case Johnson should spell out the modelling, tell us how many hospitalisations and deaths he feels are acceptable. Then, we can make up our own minds and choose our own direction for the future.

I have no doubt that we are opening up on 19th July. I just hope our leaders know what they are doing.