As anyone with even the smallest political antenna knows, Boris Johnson will only return to the daily press conferences when there is something positive to announce. That’s Johnson’s carefully cultivated image for you, all fake bonhomie and bullshit, full of optimism and positivism to make us all feel better. Clearly, his chief political advisor Dominic Cummings, the organ grinder to Johnson’s monkey, has concluded the PM must be the bearer only of good news. In which case, Johnson had might as well go on holiday again. Here’s why.
Germany, widely perceived as a country that has got things right where we have got things oh-so-wrong, has slightly eased its lockdown, despite the warnings of Chancellor Angela Merkel. Things were not returning to anything like ‘normal’, but certain shops were reopening as well as schools. Perhaps, the next step could be to move towards to life as we know it. Sadly, it looks as if Germany will be heading for another lockdown, from as early as 6th May.
In the last few weeks, the infection rate in Germany had declined to 0.7, which is to say each person with Covid-19 infected on average 0.7 people. Even though the lockdown was eased cautiously, the reproduction rate (the R) has risen quickly to 1.0, an average on one person infecting one other. This might not seem much, but let’s look at the evidence.
If R1.1 happens, the German health service could be overwhelmed by October. R1.2 and the health service is up to its limit in July. R1.3 and it’s June. The worrying reality is that Germany may have to go back into lockdown next week.
Our death rate per thousand infections is slightly over 135. Behind Belgium (154), who include all Covid-19 deaths in their totals and all suspected deaths, too, which we don’t, and France (141) but a fraction higher than Italy. Germany’s death rate per thousand is currently 37.88. If Germany is going to have a very difficult decision to make on 6th May, what about Boris Johnson and his government?
We’re in the sixth week of what is, to all intents and purposes, a semi-lockdown. Our lockdown does not come close to those lockdowns imposed on many other countries in Europe. Where we are allowed to exercise to the extent that some people are literally running marathons, others are cycling deep into the countryside and driving to far-off places to take their exercise, citizens in other countries are barely allowed to leave their front doors, except for essential shopping. To me, it never made any sense not to have a serious lockdown from the start, yet here we are, still allowing some 15,000 people a day to arrive in the country and we’re not instructing them to quarantine at all.
I don’t buy the argument circulating on social networks that opposition politicians and those in the media should simply be cheerleaders for the government and stop being critical in any way. It is becoming clearer by the day that Johnson’s handling of the Covid-19 has been a disaster. At all times, he has been behind the curve and now Britain is facing the highest death toll in Europe. Opposition politicians and the media should hold the government to account, to expose its failings and, certainly with reference to opposition politicians, supporting the government when needed but also offering constructive criticism.
Anyone hoping for an early lifting of the semi-lockdown can forget it. Only yesterday, the chief medical advisor Chris Whitty, one of the rare voices of reason at the daily press conferences, said Covid-19 would be with us for “a very long time” and judging from what is happening in Germany, even a modest rowing back of restrictions could be many months, perhaps longer than a year, away.
Boris Johnson should abandon the posh boy clown act and level with Britain. Scientists and medics are openly saying we could be in this situation for “a very long time” (Chris Whitty). What is the plan, beyond this semi-lockdown? Given that Germany’s very slight easing of their lockdown has sent new cases of Covid-19 soaring, what can Johnson do to stop the same thing happening over here?
Without a vaccine or effective treatments, there is no end in sight for Covid-19. My fear is that government is operating an informal, unannounced herd immunity policy, spreading the infections and deaths over a long period so that eventually the virus has nowhere to go. I say this with no substantial evidence, but on the basis of certain comments made by Chris Whitty and chief scientific advisor Sir Patrick Vallance. Normally, I trust the science but not when some of Johnson’s top advisors, including Cummings, are attending and actively participating in meetings of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), I become deeply suspicious.
As of now, the exhausted looking health secretary Matt Hancock is being put up by Dominic Cummings to the daily press conferences for a very good reason. For all the many faults of Johnson’s government, he has been a solid performer and, unlike pretty well all of his cabinet colleagues, he appears to be reasonably on top of his brief. Dominic Raab is out of his depth, Michael Gove slippery and devoid of empathy, Priti Patel an embarrassment of Diane Abbott proportions. And Johnson himself is an empty vessel, with nothing but rhetoric and soundbites to offer an anxious and frightened nation.
Six weeks in and many of us are scared, scared about catching the virus or worse still family and friends getting it. We’re frightened about our jobs, about our loved ones’ jobs, about the very future of our country. Every day feels the same and there doesn’t appear to be a way out of this. And it could be there isn’t a way out of this.
It would be nice to see Johnson raise his game. He will never be another Churchill, his idol, that’s for sure, but at the moment he is little more than an upper class version of Tommy Cooper, without the laughs. I’m not sure he can raise his game. Given the abysmal quality of his cabinet, I don’t think any of them can raise their games, either. Many of the so-called big hitters, like Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liz Truss, are not allowed out to the daily press conferences because they are so bad.
Johnson said on Monday that restrictions would “gradually” ease. We would all act “one-by-one to fire up the engines of this vast UK economy”. If he is not careful, there will be nothing left of this “vast economy”. Empty rhetoric has always been Johnson’s friend. With at least 30,000 dead so far, the people deserve much better. I’m afraid they won’t get it with Johnson.
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