Covid-19 thoughts

Let me first address some of the comments on social networks about people’s concerns about being ‘shamed’ for not joining in the Thursday night clap for carers. I’m not personally aware of actual instances of this and if there are any then they should stop immediately. The 8.00 pm clap is entirely voluntary. It is for individuals to express their gratitude to carers, often within their community. If you don’t want to ‘clap for carers’, then it’s your choice.

Next, Asda. I’ve just done some essential shopping in our local store and I must say the staff are excellent. Kind, attentive, professional. However, that’s where the good news ends.

Many, a great many, customers were simply ignoring social distancing. If I stood for a moment to maintain my two metre distance from the next person, a fellow shopper would simply brush by, sometimes literally. This didn’t happen once. It happened repeatedly. And the worst offenders? People wearing masks and, sad to say, older people.

The mask wearers seem to think they are now immune to Covid-19, even though the science rather suggests the sole benefit of wearing a mask is to prevent the wearer passing on quite so many germs to others. It does little or nothing to protect the wearer. Older people really should know better. They have been told to stay at home but here they were out together for a social gathering, to say hello to old friends, blocking aisles and generally behaving like , well, Covidiots. Do they not read the papers or follow government advice? Covid-19 is having a catastrophic effect on older people and very little effect on the young. Or have they simply become immune to the lies their newspapers of choice, overwhelmingly, I observed today, the Mail, Sun and Express? I could not get out quickly enough and I won’t be going back to Asda anytime soon.

Now, is it just me, or are a lot of people underestimating the coming economic disaster that is coming down the track? Chatting with neighbours after last night’s ‘clap for carers’, the news from the nearby employers was grim. With aircraft orders collapsing, Airbus have already furloughed large numbers of staff and now Rolls Royce, which is the beating heart of my community, where huge numbers of people work, is doing the same. I am told orders for aircraft engines are going through the floor. This greatly concerns me.

At his return to the daily press conference last night, Boris Johnson gave his usual upbeat and optimistic presentation. We’re past the peak, we’re going to bounce back, we’re going to unleash the potential of this fantastic country and all the rest of it. It’s his shtick, it’s what he does. However, in the cold light of day, Johnson’s cheery comments bear little resemblance to what I am seeing.

There is absolutely no doubt that the aviation industry is in for a huge contraction. The terrible job losses already announced by British Airways and now Ryanair are merely a foretaste of what’s to come. If airlines don’t order new planes, there will be no need for engines to power them. If there is no requirement to build planes and engines, what is left for Airbus and Rolls Royce to do? I do not know the facts of what may or may not happen. I am just saying that the outcome for local jobs could be disastrous and that’s without the many supply chains and small businesses which will suffer in their wake. Airbus and Rolls Royce have already said that if Virgin Airways goes down, it could take them with it.

Perhaps it’s my natural pessimism but what happens when the furlough ends and businesses are not being propped up by massive government spending? After all, the government cannot go on spending such vast sums forever. Johnson says the economy will ‘bounce back’. I hope it will, but I fear that the inevitable contractions in many sectors and the possible obliteration of others, will make that impossible. Many people still have money at the moment, a large chunk of which is covered by government borrowing. I can’t see how this ends well.

Speaking of flying, how can that start up again? There is vague talk of people wearing masks on flights and passing through heat detectors airports. Suggestions are being made that the minimum check in period will be around five hours. But where can we go? Places like the Greek islands have done very well with Covid-19, as have the Canary islands. But will they really want scores of thousands of tourists from countries like Spain, France, Italy and worst of all, given the death rate, Britain going on their beaches and into their bars and restaurants? And that’s without going into quarantine for 14 days when you get back. The only people who will be able to go on holiday will be the old and retired, the most at risk groups of them all.

As for sport, does anyone really think it will resume any time soon? The Premier League is a cash cow like no other and the pressure is on to finish the 2019/2020 season. There is talk of footballers being cocooned in hotels for six weeks, being tested daily, playing games at neutral empty stadiums. Is that really the main priority at the moment? There are so many what ifs.

What if a player tests positive during the six weeks? There will be problems galore with isolating infected players. What if players get seriously injured? Isn’t the NHS under strain already? What if fans gather outside empty stadiums? I’d imagine the police won’t be too impressed with that prospect. No. The season must remain suspended until further notice or even abandoned with trophies and prize money – yes, prize money because that’s what Project Restart is really all about – being allocated on the basis of current standings. Abandoning this season provides no guarantee that next season will start on time in August. And unless an effective Covid-19 vaccine is found soon, it is unlikely any of us will be watching football from the terraces until well into 2021, maybe beyond that?

The same applies to pretty well every other sport. There’s no getting around it. For sports fans this could be a very long winter but for insolvency experts a very lucrative one.

There are no reasons to be cheerful. The future is out of sight at the moment. We can hope and if we do God we can pray but that is pretty well all we have left. Hope science can save us from Covid-19 or pray God might get off his arse and magic it away. You pays your money, you takes your chance.