Most evenings I tune into the BBC’s ‘News for the Elderly’, also known in Bristol as Points West. It’s hosted by an amiable old duffer called David Garmston who speaks to his viewers as if he were administering spoonfuls of blended food to folk in a care home. Which I suspect comprises much of the show’s audience these days. I arrive generally around the “And finally” section of the show, when all the serious stuff is over, and we’re in to the shaggy dog story. “Ahhhh” we all say and Garmston squints at the camera and says “And now it’s over to Ian Fergusson with the weather forecast. Are we going to get any sunny weather, Ian?”
The thing is that Ian doesn’t know for sure because even as a trained meteorologist the weather forecast involves quite a lot of guesswork, loads of ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ and ‘maybes’ and by the end I have usually worked out that tomorrow will likely be mainly dry with continuous rain, but not everywhere.
Those of a certain vintage will know it has always been thus. In 1987, the BBC weatherman Michael Fish announced just before a coming storm that “…earlier on today apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she’d heard there was a hurricane on the way. Well, if you are watching, don’t worry, there isn’t…..” What followed may not have been a full-on Florida Milton Hurricane, but it wasn’t far off. As we say in these parts, I’ve never known a night like it, as people died and were injured and buildings were destroyed. Fish never lived it down. That’s why, I suspect, forecasters allow plenty of leeway.
We’re enjoying our final full day on a small island off West Africa and the forecast for today, as recently as last night was “It’s going to piss down all day” followed by “ha ha ha” from back home. Today, of course, it’s not pissing down and frankly doesn’t look like it’s about to. Who to believe?
I have three weather apps on my phone. An Apple app, the BBC app and the Met Office app. Invariably, they produce different results, with the Met Office, literally the United Kingdom’s national weather and climate service, being the least accurate. The BBC app was the most pessimistic about today’s weather and I woke up rather fearing rainfall on a biblical level. The Apple app is consistently the best, or should that be the least worst?
I have decided that in future, I shall make my decision by looking out of the window. If it’s dry and bright, I shall assume it’s dry and bright. If it’s dark and overcast, I shall assume it’s dark and overcast. And dress accordingly. More importantly, I shall regard weather forecasts rather like Astrology and Tarot cards. Basically, gobbledegook dressed up as science.
