For what it’s worth – and it’s not worth much – I think Theresa May will call an early general election in 2017. There are a number of reasons for thinking this, not the least being that she has said she won’t. But if you put the arguments together, it seems the obvious thing to do.
With Jeremy Corbyn guaranteed to be returned Labour leader by a bigger landslide than last year, the party’s divisions will widen, not narrow. The MPs who had no confidence in Corbyn earlier this year will have no more confidence in him now. If anything, his incompetence and ineptitude has become even more exposed since then. May knows that an early election would see Labour obliterated. But there are some bigger issues just down the road and whilst we are over three years from the next scheduled general election, they may take longer than that to resolve.
First, and most obviously, is Brexit. We now know that the government will trigger article 50 of the Lisbon convention early next year and we will have two years to come to an agreement with the EU, and the rest of the world, over trade. Most economists understand that we are entering a difficult period for our country which will certainly affect living standards and not in a good way. If May was to trigger article 50 next year, once the two years were up, she would be desperately near a general election. With the country in general and the economy in particular both in turmoil, these would be difficult times for May and the Tories. My feeling is she would like to buy another couple of years, up to 2022, in the hope that by then the worst aspects of Brexit will have been spun to our subconscious.
Second, and potentially more seriously, comes the NHS crisis that is currently building. We know that the Conservatives, for all their fine words, oppose the very principle of the NHS and would love to set it free, that is flog it all off. Go for an early election and May will have five unchallenged years to dismantle the NHS and introduce a private insurance system.
May will not want to wait right up until the next election to bring in very unpopular measures. Governments notoriously get the”difficult” decisions out of the way in the first year, not the beginning of the third.
Could politicians be that cynical? Of course they could. They are that cynical. May will tell us she needs her own mandate to make the changes that are necessary, dressed up with jam tomorrow, but she will also look to continue with the crushing austerity that is holding our country back. The Tories actually believe in austerity, not just as an essential, which is isn’t, but as a very principle to roll back the state.
The thing that most worries me is that only one of the two major parties wants to win elections. A few rallies and social movements will not stop May and the Tories winning the next election and probably the one after that, too.
