This is a critical time for the current government. Harold McMillan, a Tory prime minister of the dim and distant past, was once asked what he most feared in politics. His reply was, “Events, dear boy. Events.” These events are born of unforeseen occurrences which have unforeseen consequences. There are so many things that can be managed in politics, but not the unexpected.
Take the current flood situation in the north of England. Let’s be blunt about this: David Cameron was forced to lie about government spending on flood prevention. There have been huge cuts in DEFRA, as there have been throughout the public sector, and flood prevention has been at the head of them.
It is a matter of fact that spending on flood prevention was increased by 75% in real terms during the Labour government from 1997 to 2010. Since 2010, there has been a cut of 20%, again in real terms. For Cameron to traipse around the north of England today, trumpeting the simple untruth that spending had actually increased on his watch, was chutzpah of the highest order.
I am no expert so I cannot say, hand on heart, that if the cuts had not happened the floods would been avoided but surely there is a link between the two?
Since we are in the realms of dealing with facts, here are some salient ones:
DEFRA has axed 1663 specialist water and flood risk staff in the last two years.
5771 staff at DEFRA have been axed since 2010.
There have been between £282m and £462m of cuts to DEFRA flood defence spending since 2010.
Since 2010, DEFRA has cut spending in the north west by 22% and Yorkshire by 16% but increased spending in London by 54%.
And these really are facts, obtained from the House of Commons library and from DEFRA itself. Cuts have consequences.
Cameron said yesterday that “money (is) no object” in dealing with the floods but since 2010 it has been cut drastically. Why was it an “object” then, but not now?
This is an event, dear boy, and it is an event that has caught Cameron with his metaphorical trousers down by his ankles. As we have noted before, the very people most despised by Cameron and his ilk, frontline public sector workers, are the ones who were there when it mattered. The soldiers, police officers, fire and rescue workers and DEFRA staff, all of whom have been under fierce attack by Cameron since 2010, have shown what public service is and why it matters. Would you really trust G4S to organise the response to the floods, with ill-trained staff on the minimum wage? Olympic Games, anyone?
The Tories, about to knight the Australian spin doctor for services to getting them elected again, will do well to realise there are consequences to cutting the frontline of services that matter. All the spin about the investment in flood defences was made bunkum by the reality on the ground and it’s something we should not forget. Rest assured Cameron and his poodles in the Tory press will want us all to forget as soon as possible.
For Labour, a golden opportunity is opening up. Whilst Corbyn and McDonnell really messed up over George Osborne’s tax credit U turn, the shambles of the flood defence spending gives them their best opportunity since Corbyn’s elevation to the leadership. And when parliament reassembles in the New Year, Corbyn must expose the Tory cuts for what they are and for the damage they have caused. No crowd-sourcing this time, Corbyn. This is your opportunity to show that you are fit for purpose. You have facts, Cameron has spin. The public mood is with you and very much against the Tories.
And, as the frontline in the public sector gets cut ever more deeply, Labour must respond more pro actively than ever before.
Let us not forget that, behind the facade, Cameron has only ever been a TV executive before becoming an MP. He and the Tories have messed up over the floods and let down ordinary people big time.
Corbyn’s leadership to date has been nothing short of a shambles, but now he has the chance to define his role as leader of the opposition. Let’s hope he takes it.
