The good news is that the Conservative Party is hopelessly divided over Europe and much of the even more right wing press is on his case. They are in a real mess regarding the NHS where the majority of people support the junior doctors. The bad news is that they are pulling ahead of Labour in the opinion polls.
Today’s ComRes poll shows that the Tories are now on 41% whilst Labour has slipped to 27% at a time when governments are usually hugely unpopular because they are getting all the bad news out of way in the first couple of years on their term in office. Actually, in many areas as we have already noted, the Tories are already very unpopular. They are not trusted with the NHS, they are certainly not loved by the wider public, so why are they so far ahead in the polls?
At the same time of the last electoral cycle, Ed Miliband’s Labour was well ahead of the Tory government in which some Liberals had jobs. Never regarded by many as a potential prime minister – and I wish I had expressed my major doubts far earlier than I actually did – his and Labour’s poll readings were reasonable, though rarely more than reasonable, until polling day itself when his failings were exposed. And Miliband’s legacy was even worse than I had imagined.
In five years, Miliband failed to address the lie that Labour had created the US sub-prime crisis that almost brought down the banking system, failed to create a narrative of what Labour stood for and failed to present himself as someone who could be trusted to run the country. 63.1% of those who voted didn’t trust Cameron, either, but the crooked electoral system, supported by among others the Bennite left, allowed him a majority government on a minority vote. But that’s another story because 2020 will be fought on first past the post.
Miliband’s benign years of leadership paved the way for Corbyn who, for the majority of those who voted in the Labour Party leadership election, appeared to stand for something new. I would argue that Corbyn has positions, not policies, but his personal triumph, if that’s what it was, cannot be denied.
I do respect the mandate that Corbyn has as Labour leader, in the same way that I respect the mandate of Brownite trade union fixer Tom Watson as deputy leader. I also respect the 9 million people who voted Labour last May and we forget them at our peril.
I want Corbyn to succeed as Labour leader, I really do. If he fails and the Tories win again in 2020, possibly by a landslide on current polling evidence, it helps no one who needs a Labour government. But so far, the man has been completely out of his depth. Even his friends – and I don’t mean Hamas, Hezbollah and the IRA – acknowledge that oration is not Corbyn’s strongest suit. He’s a dull, uninspiring speaker and fails week in, week out at Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs). It’s not that his questions are that bad, although the “I’ve had an email from Bert this week who works as a refuse disposal officer” line of questioning is long past its sell by date, it’s just that he doesn’t remotely dent super smooth and super smug Cameron. Corbyn is not a forensic questioner, like say the late Robin Cook, and does not think on his feet. Appearances do matter in the sense that people like their prime ministers to look prime ministerial.
I can’t see how Labour’s position can get better but I can see how it will get worse. Every time they get the Tories on the back foot, one of Corbyn’s team starts briefing journalists about how the leader is going to sack Hilary Benn or how he wants to do a deal with Argentina over the Falklands. Guess what the right wing press wants to then report on? It is true that most of the press is hostile to Labour’s leader, but it’s always like that. Anyway, the public is not stupid and the activists are wrong if they regard the public as stupid and easily influenced by the press (but they, of course, are not).
I don’t think Corbyn is up to the job of leading a major political party let alone the country, especially if the likes of Ken Livingstone and Mark Serwotka think that he is. He has four years in which to change public perceptions and I would say he has a mountain to climb.
If Labour is about anything, it is about bringing about a fairer, more equal country. The Labour of the 1980s looked inwards, self-destructed and helped bring about the Thatcher era which all but destroyed so much of what this country stands for. This was of no concern to the hard left, the chattering middle classes for whom it mattered not a jot who won because they personally would be all right, but it mattered to everyone else.
I am not surprised by the latest polling news and unless Corbyn can up his game they will soon translate into substantial losses in real elections. He may well be a decent, honest and principled man, but if he can’t do better as leader than he is so far doing, then Labour might as well give up on 2020 now.
