There is nothing I can say that would in any way affect the US presidential election. The outcome is entirely dependent on the choices and indeed whims of the American public. A straight choice between a right of centre moderate Conservative party candidate, Kamala Harris, and an actual fascist, Donald Trump. If British voters were somehow responsible, Trump would only gain the support of 18% of voters, admittedly a scary enough number in itself, and Harris would win with a massive landslide majority and we would all live happily ever after. But it’s not down to Brits, obviously. And that’s a reason we should all be afraid. Very afraid.
When I hear people talking about the US election, there is one big question being asked: how could Americans vote for such an awful human being? A serious liar, convicted sex pest, a likely paedophile, a crook – and these are just Trump’s positives. Are American people just thick?
I am not going to answer that question on the simple grounds that I might then have to ask whether Brits are too, given that less than five years ago, Boris Johnson became prime minister, with a landslide victory. Johnson may be a lying narcissist who only looks at issues in the way they affect him personally, like backing a Brexit he didn’t really believe in to advance his political career, but a fascist? No. He doesn’t believe in anything. Undoubtedly, Johnson is a wrong ‘un but despite his support for Trump, one would not class him an actual fascist. Just an opportunistic shyster and grifter. But why should I care? We’re half a world away from America. If the good citizens of the USA elect a tyrant, aren’t we largely immune from the chaos he will cause?
Alas, we won’t be. When America sneezes, everyone catches a cold. However, in this instance, if American sneezes we could be, if not on life support, then seriously unwell economically, politically and militarily. No. Let’s firm that up. We would be seriously unwell, The repercussions would be dire.
Trump would erect trade barriers and with the UK already out of the European trading arrangements we would quickly feel the pain, by way of tariffs and other economic sanctions. Rachel Reeves’ recent budget, which sets to repair Broken Britain, would immediately be under threat. But if I am apprehensive about the prospect of another Trump presidency, this time without advisors to moderate his more extreme behaviour, how would others feel?
Trump has huge support in the rust belt areas, the former industrial towns and cities where the wealth was based on largely now defunct industries. It is hard to know why. The middle classes and the poor stand to lose more than most, especially when Trump will surely repeal the Affordable Care Act, denying health care to many millions of Americans. Public servants would be shivering in their boots, with Trump’s promises (threats?) to public service workers. Worst of all, Trump threatens to further politicise the judiciary and even the armed forces. That would be, as we say, just the tip of the iceberg. But if we are concerned, how about Ukraine?
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy knows exactly what will happen to his country if Trump wins re-election. Total and immediate surrender to the Russian bear. And Ukraine would not be the only Russian neighbour to fear a Trump victory, given that the ex president is clearly a Russian asset, someone Vladimir Putin cannot wait to see installed in the White House. A Russian victory in Ukraine would be a humiliation for the free western world, economically and militarily. Trump loves those he perceives to be ‘strong men’, people like Putin and Kim Jong Un and they like him, too, though not for the reasons he likes them. Putin likes Trump as a useful idiot, an intellectual dwarf, taken in by flattery, someone who he can do business with, Russia’s expansionist business.
The inward looking part of the American electorate will be attracted by Trump’s America first-sloganising, as if what happens outside America’s borders doesn’t matter, in places like Europe in general and Ukraine in particular.
Maybe my fears are exaggerated, the polls are wrong and Kamala Harris will enjoy a comfortable victory? I do hope so. While we cannot be certain that Trump would not try again to overthrow the election result, at least America will be ready. Already, the good shopkeepers of Washington are boarding up their properties in case there is another Trump-inspired insurrection.
Whatever happens, the result of this election will define what happens in the rest of the world, never mind America, for years, maybe decades to come. Lose and Trump, rapidly approaching 80 with his mental faculties in rapid decline, will surely not come again and the Republicans have the chance to regroup and resume their place in conventional, mainstream politics. The dalliance with far right politics may be coming to an end, at least across the pond.
The world will not end if Trump wins, at least not yet. But it will quickly become more unstable, chaotic and unsafe. I hope I wake tomorrow and this long nightmare will be over. I am not for one moment suggesting that Kamala Harris will be the greatest president in America’s history but however this plays out she has to be the choice of anyone who wishes to preserve what passes for democracy in America, to keep the people safe and to play a vital role in the rest of the world. If millions of Pennsylvanians follow my advice, tomorrow will be a good day. Obviously they won’t because they won’t be reading it and even if they were they might be wondering why some limey is sticking his nose in where it isn’t wanted. Well, the Fagash Fuhrer himself, Nigel Farage, is over telling Americans how to vote and while I don’t have his clout, nor indeed his money, I’m just asking them to vote Kamala Harris. Please.
