Following the decision of the British people to leave the EU, we have been subject to what is known as political posturing. Blatant and utterly cynical political posturing by ‘our’ new prime minister Theresa May. “Brexit means Brexit” she has parroted on a near daily basis, never once explaining what that might possibly mean. It bought her time, with leavers pacified in the short term, whilst she basked in the usual honeymoon enjoyed by a new leader. But new leader, old politician and old politics.
With the Tory conference beginning in Birmingham this week, May has finally had to say a little more than a meaningless slogan. From her words so far, she is either spinning again or we are headed for a bumpy ride out of the EU.
Perhaps May is pandering to the fanatics in her party and indeed in her cabinet, but her early comments appear to suggest we are headed for what is known as a ‘hard Brexit’. This will mean leaving the single market completely and introducing major immigration controls and ending the freedom of movement across the EU area. This will undoubtedly be a two-way street, on which Britons will incur severe restrictions on their ability to live, work, study and even perhaps holiday in the EU area.
I say all this with sadness, but also resignation, because I firmly believe that a hard Brexit is the form of Brexit that is favoured by the majority of people in Britain and the one they voted for last June. The major political parties, especially though not solely Labour, has no grasp of the public concerns and, it has to be said, opposition to large scale migration to this country, even though we all know that migrants are desperately needed in certain areas like the NHS to maintain an essential but flagging service. Not everyone voted to leave because of mass migration – indeed many of the areas which voted to leave have virtually no migration issues at all – but it was, in my view, the major issue that tipped the balance. May knows this and has moved early to address these issues, or pander to prejudice depending on which way you view it.
May knows also that Brexit came about not least because a large group of people feel totally detached from the way the country is being run, they feel, without them even being involved. Since the financial crash of 2008, the middle classes and the working poor have taken the brunt of government imposed austerity. Whilst this was not the fault of the EU, a significant part of the public has taken out its anger with its rulers, as our politicians are regarded, rather than our representatives.
The 48% who voted remain have a duty to move on and achieve the best possible result for the British people given the great unknowns we now face. If we are about to wave goodbye to the EU trading area, to dramatically increase immigration controls and to seek trading agreements abroad, we need to hold May and her government to account to ensure the worst excesses of Brexit are minimised. What will happen to migrants already here, or British ex-pats living abroad? Will our major companies – not to mention major foreign companies like Nissan who operate here – be able to trade freely with Europe? How will trade tariffs affect prices in the shops? Will we require visas to travel to Europe, even for holidays? How much will it cost for us all to buy brand new shiny British passports? And when will Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox deliver on their promises to invest an extra £350 million a week in the NHS? These questions and many more represent just a tiny fraction of the issues that will need to be resolved once article 50 of the Lisbon treatment is triggered.
We all knew, leavers and remainders, that Brexit would be messy and difficult and it would, certainly in the short term, have a negative effect on the economy so no one should be surprised at the fairground roller coaster ride in which we are about to embark.
Mrs May will get countless standing ovations from the Europhobes in her party who have now led our country out of the EU and even a strong remainer like me has to accept that. I am not one of those who seeks to reverse the referendum result. Nor do I have no objection in principle to a referendum as to the future nature of our relationship with the EU and the rest of the world, but I would want to die in a ditch if it doesn’t happen and I don’t think it will. I still have profound doubts, concerns and indeed fears for the future which I hope will be addressed by politicians of all colours. Issues of migration must be addressed, as I have been saying for a long time, because the people have said so. Whether the people would welcome exit from the single market, severe restrictions on our relationship with Eu countries, I am not so sure.
Brexit means Brexit is an utterly meaningless slogan and hopeless this week May and her colleagues will explain what is might mean and look like. What we can be sure about is that we are leaving the EU and whether I think it will be a disaster for Britain (I still do) no longer matters.
From everyone’s point of view, I hope that the opposition parties will hold May and her colleagues firmly to account every step along the way. This means that Jeremy Corbyn, with his renewed mandate, will finally need to rise to the occasion, and forensically examine and, if necessary challenge, every single aspect of Brexit. It will be a huge ask for Corbyn, who has restricted his activities since his election to addressing public meetings of people who already agree with him, but that is what he is there for, isn’t it?
Not much is at stake here, apart from the entire future of our country. Despite our decision to leave the EU, I am not convinced that we want to pull up the drawbridge to the rest of the world or to remain insular and separate in a Trump-like existence with the English Channel being our Mexican wall.
The decision to leave the EU has been made, no arguments there. What post EU Britain will look like remains a mystery to everyone, including our leaders. But the 52% have made the bed for all of us and now we have to lie on it. That, as Jurgen Klopp always says, is how it is.
